Here’s exactly how long the S&P 500’s moderate bull market lasted — and what history says about the future

The stock market has been rising for the past few years and we are entering the third year of the most modern bull market. As of this writing, it is S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is up more than 65% since bottoming out in October 2022, and Nasdaq (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) increased by around 87% during this time.

Still, some traders are uncertain about how long it will take for these moral cases to close. About a third of U.S. traders feel “bearish” about the next six months, based primarily on the January 2025 watch from the American Specialty Traders Association.

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While there is no methodology for predicting the further methodology for the market, it might be good, it might be fair, and it might also make sense to see how long a frequent bull market lasts – as successful as what historical past has to teach about what will happen coming.

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Bull markets tend to close much longer than bearish markets

The moral is that realistically bull markets tend to last much longer than sustaining markets. The frequent S&P 500 bull market between 1929 and 2023 lasted 1,011 days, mainly based entirely on information from the Bespoke Funding Neighborhood, while the frequent maintenance market lasted around 286 days.

Extra cutting edge bull markets also last longer. Three of the last 10 bull markets have not lasted more than 2,000 days in a long time, and eight have lasted more than 500 days. Among the 10 earliest bull markets that began in 1929, the simplest two lasted longer than 200 days.

As of this writing, we are 820 days into the most recent bull market. That might well, might well suggest that we might have a fair six months before the next trot, assuming this bull market is consistent with frequency. Regardless, there’s an essential caveat here: the market may be fair, but it’s also incredibly unpredictable in the short term.

What does this tell us about long-term whipping?

Moving averages are most often a dedicated methodology to roughly observe how long-term bulls and support markets tend to close, but they may no longer be able to predict long-term swings.

While a common bull market lasts about 1,000 days, some last much longer. For example, the belief that one of many recent spikes between 2009 and 2020 lasted about 4,000 days. So there is a constant gamble that allows us to have several years earlier than we do before the next trot begins.

^SPX info YCharts.

However, it is almost certain that the market will successfully recover from any recession it faces. Every single maintenance market in history has been followed by a bull market, and the longer you decide to invest, the better your chances of seeing reliable total returns.

Truth be told, while you think you’ve been invested in an S&P 500 index fund or an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for exactly one year, there’s a 27% chance you’re likely to see devastating returns, especially in all-funds on information from Capital Neighborhood Investment Management Company. But while you feel like keeping your investment for 10 years, there is a mere 6% probability of ruinous income.

Protecting your portfolio from downturns

In the voice that seeks to predict the future of the market, is it no longer at least a little safer to just invest persistently, or no longer, it is now no longer relevant what the costs of stocks do.

This purpose is called dollar price averaging and involves investing at odd intervals throughout the year, regardless of how the market is performing. From time to time, it is likely that you may make investments with narratively high costs. But in other cases, it is likely that you may be in a location where you can acquire stocks on the steep side. Over many years, these usaand dips will have to illuminate realistically every other – and probably, without a methodology, you may want to worry about whether or not you are investing at the “right” or “terrible” time.

It’s easy to get caught up in the endless swings of the market, and even though you may feel insecure about a few looming dips, you’re not alone. While no one can predict what might honestly happen in the coming months, persistent investing and maintaining a long-term outlook can protect your portfolio more.

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Katie Brockman has no vote on any of the shares discussed. The Motley Fool has no say in any of the stocks discussed. The Motley Fool has disclosure protections.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.